2008 RGCC Forecast: Synopsis of findings

Continued A level grade inflation
We have now analysed four years of entry data (2002-2005), and across the board there has been steady increase in the average tariff points for A level entrants. The average tariff points for an A level Cambridge entrant are now 526 – the equivalent of more than 4 As at A level. With the A level bar being continually being raised, and with ever-higher grades being achieved, it would seem that employers face a challenge in equating what value should be attributed to the UCAS tariff point system.

Gender preferences follow trends
Girls study Arts subjects and boys go for Engineering and the Sciences – this is not a sexist aspersion but a statement of fact. Indeed in some areas of computer science and engineering, courses may have only a token female representation – an important factor for employers worried about diversity targets.

Social class a significant influence Our analysis consistently shows a direct link between social class and degree achievement. Indeed we have again identified a direct link with A level achievement and social class where the top achievers (those gaining 3 As or better) succeed proportionate to their social standing – this is in addition to the middle classes being more likely to gain a first or 2:1.

Output by subject
The most graduates by subject area leave university with a Business-related degree – over 36,000 of them in 2007. The oft-quoted media and communications area graduated only 8,300 students – 2.9' of the total.

Subject Bias – some subjects are more equal than others
75% of students studying History & Philosophy and 74% studying English, language and cultural studies achieve a 2:1 or better, while only 50% of Computer Scientists and 51% of Business Studies students achieve the same classification.

Gender Wars
Women continued to dominate men in almost every category. 56% of the students who had the equivalent of 3As or better at A-level were female. Of all 2:1s and 1sts awarded, 59% went to women 41% to men. Women outperformed men in every subject area. Do women find degrees easier, do the subjects that women study award higher class degrees or are men just lazier.

Graduates with a first or 2:1
49% of all graduates now leave university with a 2:1 – add in the 12.7% who have a first and a massive 62% of the graduate population now possesses the most prevalent minimum requirement set by employers. Our analysis of earlier data suggests that this is up from 50% in the early 90s and 35% in the early 1980s. Note: These figures exclude unclassified degrees and are based on full time students.

Whites do better
No matter how the data is cut, white students outperform their non-white counterparts, and in the achievement of 2:1s and 1sts, Black and Asian students are basically a ‘grade behind’. This point is particularly poignant when looking at the most ethnically diverse campuses (see table below). Even at the universities where white students are in a minority they achieve a much higher level of 2:1 and firsts than Black or Asian students.